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- 玄机资料文字论坛 - jlcc1069.com

2018-05-22 09:56 来源:AG亚游集团zc9661.com

   - 玄机资料文字论坛 - jlcc1069.com

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  午夜剧场 午夜剧场 二四六天天好彩

   - 玄机资料文字论坛 - jlcc1069.com

 
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惊魂12小时!你身边的期货交易者亲历一触即发的中美贸易战

2018-3-27 10:52:26

来源:交汇点 作者:吉强

    交汇点讯以为期货交易者很神秘?不,其实就在我们身边!C君,一位中文出身的中年男士,出入格子间把弄文字之余,长年从事期货交易。

    你以为中美贸易战还只是“打打嘴仗”?不,作为一名期货交易者,C君,已先行感受到了这一触即发的贸易战先行释放的“惨烈”,在血淋淋12小时之后仍心有余悸!

    

    北京时间23日凌晨,“不可预测”的美国总统特朗普“悍然”挑起了针对中国的贸易战——要对500亿美元中国出口商品加征关税。如此“狮子大开口”立即遭到中国“当头棒喝”,当天早上7点,还没到上班时间,中国商务部就宣布了反制措施——拟对自美进口的30亿美元产品加征关税。一时间,中美贸易战剑拔弩张。

    

    谁能想到,贸易战“箭”还在弦上,先“倒下的”不是相关企业,而是全球投资者,这其中就包括做期货交易的C君。由于国内期货夜盘交易从晚上9点最迟到次日凌晨2点半结束,比炒A股的要早,所以,贸易战打响造成的市场剧震之苦,做期货的先尝到了。

    “从贸易战信号发出,到当天期货夜盘交易结束,短短12个小时交易时间内,国内期货几十个品种普遍被血洗,螺纹钢、橡胶还跌停了,我也躲闪不及,本金一天亏掉了10%。” C君对新华经济分析师说。

    按理说,期货交易只要方向看准,做多、做空都可赚钱,大跌也是机会,不一定就赔呀?C君懊悔道,主要还是自己对贸易战事态发展、影响估计不足。

    “做期货的向来都耳听八方,其实早在3月初特朗普宣布对进口钢铁和铝征收关税后不久,市场就有美国还要专对中国出口商品下手的风声,不过,大家都没太当回事。毕竟把过去小打小闹的贸易摩擦上升到伤筋动骨的贸易战肯定两败俱伤。谁想到特朗普这次要玩真的呢?所以,尽管有点心理准备,但消息一出,市场还是产生了‘黑天鹅’效应。”

    

    C君回顾了自己在那“黑色”12小时的操作经过,真是步步惊心、笔笔泣血。

    汇通网7x24快讯栏目是许多期货交易者了解即时信息的窗口。

    23日00:18:42,网上跳出“美国宣布对500亿美元中国出口商品征收关税”。

    C君说,当时市场反应平平,还在交易的上海期货交易所有色金属期货将消息当成“耳旁风”,铜5月合约延续原来“步调”,到凌晨1点夜盘收市时报收50420元/手,较消息公布前还涨了100元。

    “当时觉得市场对消息的反应符合预期,利用铜价的小幅震荡,我还做了几次‘短平快’,小有收获,由于近一个月铜价从54070元高位已深度回调,有反弹空间,所以夜盘收市时自己持有了多仓。”

    07:03:47,网上出现中国商务部新闻发言人宣布反制措施的消息。

    C君说,日盘交易从上午9点开始,开盘前看到中国出“实招”反制的时候,虽然开始隐隐感到事态有点严重,但仍以为之前期价调整已足够深,再跌也跌不到哪里去了。

    不料,贸易战对市场的震撼影响从23日9点正式释放。

    C君持有的铜7分钟内从夜市收盘价跌至49800元/手,下跌620元。这意味着,仅1手铜合约就损失3100元,按照1手铜保证金3.5万计算,本金已亏近9%。当然,这不过是当天剧震的开场戏,经过几上几下动辄4、500元一波的颠簸,下午3点收市时铜价报收50110元,日跌880元,幅度1.7%。

    “不知所措—恐惧—急于扳本,这几种情绪反复交织,患得患失,市场剧烈震荡将人性的弱点暴露无遗,盘中买卖频繁,疯狂的代价是咋做咋错。” C君说。

    铜合约保证金“块头”大,价格受到伦敦等外盘牵引,23日白天波动幅度以及当天跌幅还算小的,相比之下,1手保证金只要6000多元、价格更多受国内因素左右的螺纹钢就惨了,上午开盘半小时两轮下跌,价格较此前夜盘跌去156元,直逼3369元、7%的跌停价,而且,最后收盘还是封在了跌停。一天跌去254元,1手损失2540元,1手保证金竟然要亏掉4成。

    春节前,国内钢铁企业、钢贸商、期货人对节后钢价挺有信心,毕竟2016年螺纹钢价格自1600多元/吨“白菜价”起步,走出了波澜壮阔的大牛市,去年最高曾涨至5000元,现货市场年平均交易价格在4000元。虽然今年国内基建规模可能不如去年,但市场对节后建筑市场复工期望值仍高。也因为此,钢贸商们普遍在3800元以上价格囤货,只等节后“收割”利润。

    而螺纹钢期货5月合约节前收在3956元,似乎也“欲欲跃试”。但市场总有“意外”,节后期货价格虽一度冲高至4062元,但随后便跌跌不休,建筑市场需求恢复慢、库存高企、美国对进口钢材征税等坏消息压得钢价“直不起腰”。

    

    “考虑到钢贸商囤货成本那么高,我也做多螺纹钢的,期货价格一度跌不深但容易反弹,赚钱稳稳当当,可后来越来越不对劲, 22日跌到了3600元左右,你以为跌不动了,没想到‘地狱之下还有炼狱’,贸易战‘震撼弹’将期价又打下一个台阶,23日夜盘交易中螺纹钢价最低下探至3334元。” C君苦笑说。

    当然,在贸易战掀起的市场风暴中,也有价格逆流而涨的。

    最幸运的是黄金。上海黄金期货6月合约23日9点开市后价格跳涨近2元,收盘涨3.75元,幅度1.37%,夜盘再涨,最高至277.25元。美联储加息后美元走低、贸易战激发市场避险情绪,使得金价上周不断走高,周涨幅超过3%。

    美国大豆可能成为中国征税选项,使得期货市场大豆、豆粕等闻风而涨

    C君不好意思地说,23日黄金、豆粕自己都少量做过,而且是买进做多,但心态实在不稳,没赚钱就跑了。“当时价格变动之快就像一把锋利的刀,一不留神就割了手。”

    

    让C君等期货人“惊魂”的12小时已然过去,今天,太阳照样升起,但前事不忘后事之师,此情此景,新华经济分析师不由得想起股神巴菲特在2016年市场波动剧烈时说过了一句话:“在市场剧烈动荡时,不要密切关注它,倘若投资者太过紧张的话,是不会取得好收益的。

    交汇点记者 吉强

    新华日报社全媒体经济新闻部出品

    

    江苏新华报业传媒集团有限公司 版权所有 未经允许 请勿复制或镜像

    苏ICP备05012207国新网许可证:3212006002

    

- 玄机资料文字论坛 - jlcc1069.com

2018-05-22 10:52 来源:交汇点

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    交汇点讯以为期货交易者很神秘?不,其实就在我们身边!C君,一位中文出身的中年男士,出入格子间把弄文字之余,长年从事期货交易。

    你以为中美贸易战还只是“打打嘴仗”?不,作为一名期货交易者,C君,已先行感受到了这一触即发的贸易战先行释放的“惨烈”,在血淋淋12小时之后仍心有余悸!

    

    北京时间23日凌晨,“不可预测”的美国总统特朗普“悍然”挑起了针对中国的贸易战——要对500亿美元中国出口商品加征关税。如此“狮子大开口”立即遭到中国“当头棒喝”,当天早上7点,还没到上班时间,中国商务部就宣布了反制措施——拟对自美进口的30亿美元产品加征关税。一时间,中美贸易战剑拔弩张。

    

    谁能想到,贸易战“箭”还在弦上,先“倒下的”不是相关企业,而是全球投资者,这其中就包括做期货交易的C君。由于国内期货夜盘交易从晚上9点最迟到次日凌晨2点半结束,比炒A股的要早,所以,贸易战打响造成的市场剧震之苦,做期货的先尝到了。

    “从贸易战信号发出,到当天期货夜盘交易结束,短短12个小时交易时间内,国内期货几十个品种普遍被血洗,螺纹钢、橡胶还跌停了,我也躲闪不及,本金一天亏掉了10%。” C君对新华经济分析师说。

    按理说,期货交易只要方向看准,做多、做空都可赚钱,大跌也是机会,不一定就赔呀?C君懊悔道,主要还是自己对贸易战事态发展、影响估计不足。

    “做期货的向来都耳听八方,其实早在3月初特朗普宣布对进口钢铁和铝征收关税后不久,市场就有美国还要专对中国出口商品下手的风声,不过,大家都没太当回事。毕竟把过去小打小闹的贸易摩擦上升到伤筋动骨的贸易战肯定两败俱伤。谁想到特朗普这次要玩真的呢?所以,尽管有点心理准备,但消息一出,市场还是产生了‘黑天鹅’效应。”

    

    C君回顾了自己在那“黑色”12小时的操作经过,真是步步惊心、笔笔泣血。

    汇通网7x24快讯栏目是许多期货交易者了解即时信息的窗口。

    23日00:18:42,网上跳出“美国宣布对500亿美元中国出口商品征收关税”。

    C君说,当时市场反应平平,还在交易的上海期货交易所有色金属期货将消息当成“耳旁风”,铜5月合约延续原来“步调”,到凌晨1点夜盘收市时报收50420元/手,较消息公布前还涨了100元。

    “当时觉得市场对消息的反应符合预期,利用铜价的小幅震荡,我还做了几次‘短平快’,小有收获,由于近一个月铜价从54070元高位已深度回调,有反弹空间,所以夜盘收市时自己持有了多仓。”

    07:03:47,网上出现中国商务部新闻发言人宣布反制措施的消息。

    C君说,日盘交易从上午9点开始,开盘前看到中国出“实招”反制的时候,虽然开始隐隐感到事态有点严重,但仍以为之前期价调整已足够深,再跌也跌不到哪里去了。

    不料,贸易战对市场的震撼影响从23日9点正式释放。

    C君持有的铜7分钟内从夜市收盘价跌至49800元/手,下跌620元。这意味着,仅1手铜合约就损失3100元,按照1手铜保证金3.5万计算,本金已亏近9%。当然,这不过是当天剧震的开场戏,经过几上几下动辄4、500元一波的颠簸,下午3点收市时铜价报收50110元,日跌880元,幅度1.7%。

    “不知所措—恐惧—急于扳本,这几种情绪反复交织,患得患失,市场剧烈震荡将人性的弱点暴露无遗,盘中买卖频繁,疯狂的代价是咋做咋错。” C君说。

    铜合约保证金“块头”大,价格受到伦敦等外盘牵引,23日白天波动幅度以及当天跌幅还算小的,相比之下,1手保证金只要6000多元、价格更多受国内因素左右的螺纹钢就惨了,上午开盘半小时两轮下跌,价格较此前夜盘跌去156元,直逼3369元、7%的跌停价,而且,最后收盘还是封在了跌停。一天跌去254元,1手损失2540元,1手保证金竟然要亏掉4成。

    春节前,国内钢铁企业、钢贸商、期货人对节后钢价挺有信心,毕竟2016年螺纹钢价格自1600多元/吨“白菜价”起步,走出了波澜壮阔的大牛市,去年最高曾涨至5000元,现货市场年平均交易价格在4000元。虽然今年国内基建规模可能不如去年,但市场对节后建筑市场复工期望值仍高。也因为此,钢贸商们普遍在3800元以上价格囤货,只等节后“收割”利润。

    而螺纹钢期货5月合约节前收在3956元,似乎也“欲欲跃试”。但市场总有“意外”,节后期货价格虽一度冲高至4062元,但随后便跌跌不休,建筑市场需求恢复慢、库存高企、美国对进口钢材征税等坏消息压得钢价“直不起腰”。

    

    “考虑到钢贸商囤货成本那么高,我也做多螺纹钢的,期货价格一度跌不深但容易反弹,赚钱稳稳当当,可后来越来越不对劲, 22日跌到了3600元左右,你以为跌不动了,没想到‘地狱之下还有炼狱’,贸易战‘震撼弹’将期价又打下一个台阶,23日夜盘交易中螺纹钢价最低下探至3334元。” C君苦笑说。

    当然,在贸易战掀起的市场风暴中,也有价格逆流而涨的。

    最幸运的是黄金。上海黄金期货6月合约23日9点开市后价格跳涨近2元,收盘涨3.75元,幅度1.37%,夜盘再涨,最高至277.25元。美联储加息后美元走低、贸易战激发市场避险情绪,使得金价上周不断走高,周涨幅超过3%。

    美国大豆可能成为中国征税选项,使得期货市场大豆、豆粕等闻风而涨

    C君不好意思地说,23日黄金、豆粕自己都少量做过,而且是买进做多,但心态实在不稳,没赚钱就跑了。“当时价格变动之快就像一把锋利的刀,一不留神就割了手。”

    

    让C君等期货人“惊魂”的12小时已然过去,今天,太阳照样升起,但前事不忘后事之师,此情此景,新华经济分析师不由得想起股神巴菲特在2016年市场波动剧烈时说过了一句话:“在市场剧烈动荡时,不要密切关注它,倘若投资者太过紧张的话,是不会取得好收益的。

    交汇点记者 吉强

    新华日报社全媒体经济新闻部出品

    

    江苏新华报业传媒集团有限公司 版权所有 未经允许 请勿复制或镜像

    苏ICP备05012207国新网许可证:3212006002

    

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