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- 玄关设计500图片欣赏文字论坛 - jlcc1069.com

2018-05-24 15:49 来源:二四六天天好彩64407.com

   - 玄关设计500图片欣赏文字论坛 - jlcc1069.com

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  电影天堂 电影天堂 二四六天天好彩

   - 玄关设计500图片欣赏文字论坛 - jlcc1069.com

 
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此次美国以贸易逆差为由对中国发动贸易战,那么中美贸易逆差到底是多少?中美贸易战发展及解决路径是什么?

 323日,美国总统特朗普宣布将基于301调查结果对来自中国的600亿美元商品加征关税,对中企投资美国设限并在世贸组织采取针对中国的行动等。当天正是特朗普政府基于美国“232调查”对进口美国的钢和铝征收25%10%的关税之时。123日,美国刚对太阳能电池板和电冰箱进口商品加征30%50%的关税。

美国的贸易保护举措激起了全球反弹,作为回击,欧盟宣布将对进口自美国的35亿美元商品征收25%的报复性关税,韩国向WTO提出申诉,一旦成功,美国将面临60天贸易报复制裁。作为回应和抵消,中国商务部提出两批次7128种美国进口商品要加征15%25%不等的关税。此次美国以贸易逆差为由对中国发动贸易战,那么中美贸易逆差到底是多少?中美贸易战发展及解决路径是什么?

贸易战违背经济学基本原理

美国在经济日益全球化的今天搞贸易战,这是违背经济学原理、国际贸易原理和经济全球化的基本规律的。美元作为世界货币必须以贸易逆差为前提才能全球流通,美国只有通过贸易逆差输出美元,才能保障美元作为世界货币的地位。同时,国际贸易本身就是发挥各国比较优势或要素禀赋来交易,美国作为去工业化的发达国家,服务业占比近80%,其贸易逆差也是当前国际分工、产业结构、全球价值链的必然结果。

美国以贸易逆差、知识产权为由挑起贸易战纯属无中生有,以其此前进行的“337调查”为例,中国企业在反垄断及窃取商业机密等诉点上完胜,显示出美国的调查完全没有公正性可言。美国启动301调查,实则是剑指“中国制造2025”,限制中国企业到美投资和美国对华出口,其方案涉及十大领域,包括先进信息技术产品、自动化机床和机器人、航空航天装备、海洋工程装备、现代轨道交通装备、电动和其他新能源车辆、电力装备、农业机械装备、新材料、生物医药和其他高性能医疗器械等。

贸易战是在实施美国优先的单边主义。特朗普打贸易战与其“美国第一,买美国货、雇美国人”的主张一脉相承。特朗普上台至今已经退出了多边的TPPTTIPTISA,重启NAFTA谈判,退出巴黎协定。据彼得森研究所的报告,作为惯用的贸易制裁手段,美国迄今已对全球发起过122301调查,对中国也发起过六次301调查,涉及知识产权、市场准入壁垒及清洁能源政策等各方面。特朗普现在是国内问题国际化,国际问题国内化,要通过其国内法规则来赚取他国利益,这既是利益驱动,也是为其中期选举做准备。

1:美国贸易进出口及其逆差平稳发展情况

数据来源:美国经济分析局

中美产业结构、资源禀赋比较优势形成互惠互利合作共赢是利益共同体。中美建交近40年双边贸易规模增长了232倍,双向投资累计2300多亿美元。过去10年,美对华出口平均增速是美总出口增速的近3倍,是中国对美出口增速的近2倍。中美贸易关系着中美两国乃至全球的根本福祉,中美贸易现状与产业竞争力及经济发展阶段相关,其实是互惠互利,是长期市场选择的结果。中美产业结构差异大,这是中美贸易差额大的关键。

22016年美国对中国各类货品出口金额占比情况

数据来源:美国商务部

 

被夸大的“中美贸易逆差”

首先,美国统计高估贸易逆差20%。美国声称其所采取具体措施就是要降低美国对华贸易赤字1000亿美元。但美方的统计高估了至少20%的中美贸易逆差。根据中国统计,2017年中美之间的逆差是2752亿美元,而非美国宣称的3750亿美元,双方统计相差近1000亿美元。通过中美专门的工作组测算,美国官方统计的对华贸易逆差每年都被高估了20%左右。

3:中美服务贸易逆差扩大的发展变化情况

数据来源:美国经济分析局

其次,美国对中国服务业的贸易顺差全球第一。2016年美国对华服务贸易顺差高达370亿美元,是美国在全球最大的服务业顺差国,呈逐年扩大态势。

4:中美货物贸易进出口发展变化情况

数据来源:美国商务部

再次,美国对中国的高科技产品出口管制是导致其贸易逆差的重要原因。美国一方面限制包括航空航天等高科技向中国出口,另一方面限制华为等高科技企业到美国投资,此外还领衔瓦森纳协议,声称出于对“国家安全”的考虑,禁止向中国出口包括航空航天、信息技术、新材料等几乎所有高科技产品及军品。据统计,美国对华高科技出口管制水平只要降到对法国的水平,中美贸易逆差就能减少34%

最后,贸易逆差数据的失真还源于对中间品贸易额的统计。目前全球贸易中大约有80%以上是中间品贸易,而中国出口美国的产品中有超过44%的为“中间产品”,如果去掉中间产品价值,美国对华贸易逆差将减半。中国出口给美国的最终产品里面有更多的部分并不是由中国生产,但却被统计在中国出口到美国的贸易额中,被特朗普当成了贸易逆差的靶子来打。

        图5:2017年底中国向美国出口各类金额占比情况

数据来源:中国海关总署

 

贸易战不是美国说打就能打的

中美贸易只能增加美国就业。特朗普认为贸易顺差意味着中国抢占美国的就业,而事实上,中美并不处于产业链的竞争格局当中。美联社曾援引美国印第安纳州波尔州立大学统计显示,美国有超过88%的就业是被机械化所取代的。从20102015年,美国制造业对中国出口连年增长,但美国的制造业就业却不增反减。

中美贸易逆差并不代表利润逆差。以苹果手机为例,一部600美金的苹果手机,中国只赚取其中6.5美元,占比1%,但在中国出口美国的贸易额中却是按整机价格计算出口值。

据中国商务部2017年《关于中美经贸关系的研究报告》统计,在全球价值链和价值链当中,货物贸易顺差反映在中国,但实际利益顺差却是在美国。因此,国际贸易统计更关键的是要看增加值,双方实质上是互利共赢的关系。中美两国所处的产业结构不同而且绝大多数互补,这种在长期市场竞争中所形成的中美贸易格局,最根本还是由两国所处的产业链和价值链位置不同决定的。从分类统计看,中国货物贸易顺差的59%来自外资企业,也就是说,贸易顺差中有很多是美国6.7万家在华的跨国公司赚走的。

美国是全球产业链布局的最大受益者。在中美贸易当中,美国公司将航空航天、军工等高科技产业中附加值高的设计、研发和营销等两头环节留在美国本土,而把低附加值环节如加工、组装则外包到劳动力相对廉价的中国等地。中国的贸易顺差有61%来自加工贸易,这也显示中国所处的多是价值链的低端,赚的只是少量的加工费。美国乃至全球民众每天都能享受来自中国的物美价廉的商品,正是得益于这种产业分工。因此,中美贸易逆差并不能反映双方通过贸易所获得的实际利益。

与中国打贸易战也不符合美国利益

首先,贸易战直接伤及美国跨国公司。美国在华有6.7万家企业,这些企业仅利用中国廉价土地、劳动力资源及中国政府富裕的优惠产业政策,其生产的产品大部分还是返销美国,因此美国对中国打贸易战,岂不是“大水冲了龙王庙”?

其次,进口商品的可替代性不同。从中美相互出口的主要产品看,中国出口美国的是美国家庭常用的必需品,数量巨大,短期难以找到足够的可替代产品和供应商。美国出口中国的产品则量少价值高,比如飞机,中国完全可以选址欧洲或其他国家的产品加以替代。

图6:2017年12月中国向美国进口各类金额占比

数据来源:中国海关总署

最后,贸易战引发美国及全球投资者反对。319日,25家知名零售商联合致信特朗普,呼吁不要对中国加征进口关税,因为对中国产品加征关税会导致服装、电子设备等日用品价格大幅上涨,这不仅损害美国消费者,更严重侵害了支持特朗普竞选的工薪阶层利益。323日,来自纽约州、加州、宾州等6个地区的代表来华路演吸引近30亿美元投资。

中美贸易战主动权在中方而不在美方

美国打贸易战是重大战略失误。从中美双方的局势来看,美国贸易代表莱特还想重演上世纪与欧日贸易战的胜利,这是重大战略误判。中国不打则已打就会坚定地打赢!

从格局上看,尽管美国贸易代表是谈判老手,但中国不是日本那样的外向型小经济体,中国不仅有完备的工业体系,而且早就从出口导向型经济体转为消费驱动增长型经济体,中国消费对GDP的贡献率达60%,内需对GDP的贡献率90%,中国经济体的韧性足,通过促进内需,美国贸易战对中国经济的影响会大幅降低,而美国作为消费国家,对中国产品加征关税必然会部分抵消其减税对消费和经济增长的促进效用。

从应对来看,一旦贸易战打起来,美国会杀敌一百自损三千。美国高悬着20多万亿美元的债务,中国作为美国的最大债权国,也是美国飞机、大豆的第一大出口市场,汽车的第二大出口市场。美国出口的62%的大豆、25%的波音飞机、17%的汽车销售在中国。以美国对华出口产品数据为例,2016年美国对华出口大豆3366万吨价值138亿美元,飞机440架值125亿美元,汽车25.5万辆价值121亿美元,美国出口中国的原材料占其出口的近20%,每个美国农民平均向中国出口农产品约1.2万美元。

美国要看清贸易战数十亿美元与数万亿美元的机会成本之间孰重孰轻。不仅是货物贸易,单拿美国最倚重的金融业来看,目前中国正在加大开放力度,推进减免对外资投资金融业的限制,如果美国掀起贸易战,中国完全可以在对其他国家开放市场的同时限制美国企业进入,这对于美国金融企业在中国的发展必然造成不利影响,使其错失良机。(作者刘英系中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员)

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刘英

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